DATASET ON AUTHORITARIAN ELECTIONS (DAE)

LIBRO DE CÓDIGOS

Unit_ID = Unit ID

Cases = Cases

Country = Country

Year = Year

Country_ID = Country ID

Case_ID = Case ID

Region = World region
(1)	Latin America
(2)	Eastern Europe
(3)	Central Asia & Caucasus
(4)	Middle East & Northern Africa
(5)	Sub-Saharan Africa
(6)	South & East Asia

Region_1 = Latin America (regional dummy)
(0)	Rest of world
(1)	Latin America

Region_2 = Eastern Europe (regional dummy)
(0)	Rest of world
(1)	Eastern Europe

Region_3 = Central Asia & Caucasus (regional dummy)
(0)	Rest of world
(1)	Central Asia & Caucasus

Region_4 = Middle East & Northern Africa (regional dummy)
(0)	Rest of world
(1)	Middle East & Northern Africa

Region_5 = Sub-Saharan Africa (regional dummy)
(0)	Rest of world
(1)	Sub-Saharan Africa

Region_6 = South & East Asia (regional dummy)
(0)	Rest of world
(1)	South & East Asia

Period = Post-Cold War
(0)	Cold War Period (-1989)
(1)	Post-Cold War Period (1990-)

Election = Type of election (string)
(C)	Concurrent elections
(L)	Legislative elections
(P)	Presidential elections

Election_N = Type of election (numeric)
(1)	Presidential election
(2)	Concurrent election
(3)	Parliamentary election

Election_P = Presidential election
(0)	Legislative election (nonconcurrent)
(1)	Presidential election (concurrent or not)

Concur = Concurrent election
(0)	Non-concurrent election
(1)	Concurrent election

RTT - REGIME TYPE AND TRAJECTORIES

EAR = Electoral authoritarian regime
(0)	Electoral democracy
(1)	Electoral authoritarianism

Hegemonic = Hegemonic party regime
(0)	Competitive regime
(1)	Hegemonic regime

Competitive = Competitive authoritarianism
(0)	No
(1)	Competitive authoritarianism

Origin = Previous regime
(0)	Single-party regime
(1)	Electoral autocracy
(2)	Military government
(3)	Democracy

Origin_SP = Previous regime: single-party regime
(0)	No
(1)	Yes

Origin_EA = Previous regime: electoral autocracy
(0)	No
(1)	Yes

Origin_M = Previous regime: military government
(0)	Civilian government
(1)	Military government

Origin_Dem = Previous regime: democracy
(0)	No
(1)	Yes

Sub = Regime change
(0)	Continuity
(1)	Democratization
(2)	Interruption

Sub_CR = Competitive regime change
(0)	Continuity
(1)	Democratization
(2)	Interruption

Sub_HR4 = Hegemonic regime change
(0)	Hegemonic continuity
(1)	Competitive regime
(2)	Democracy
(3)	Interruption

Sub_HR2 = Hegemonic regime opening
(0)	Hegemonic continuity
(1)	Opening (CR or democracy)

Sub_Heg = Subsequent regime: hegemonic regime
(0)	Competitive EA or ED
(1)	Hegemonic

Sub_EA = Subsequent regime: EA continuity
(0)	No
(1)	Electoral authoritarian continuity

Sub_Coup = Subsequent regime: interruption
(0)	No
(1)	Violent interruption

Sub_Dem = Subsequent regime: democratization
(0)	No
(1)	Democratization

Sequence = Sequence of authoritarian elections (P or L, lowest if concurrent)
(1)	1st election
(2)	2nd election
(3)	3rd election
(4)	4th and subsequent elections

Sequence3 = Sequence of authoritarian elections (3 categories)
(1)	1st election
(2)	2nd or 3rd election
(3)	4th + election

SequLeg = Sequence of legislative elections (4 categories)
(1)	1st election
(2)	2nd election
(3)	3rd election
(4)	4th and subsequent elections

SequLeg3 = Sequence of legislative elections (3 categories)
(1)	1st election
(2)	2nd and 3rd election
(3)	4th and subsequent elections

SequPre = Sequence of presidential elections (4 categories)
(1)	1st election
(2)	2nd election
(3)	3rd election
(4)	4th and subsequent elections

SequPre3 = Sequence of presidential elections (3 categories)
(1)	1st election
(2)	2nd and 3rd election
(3)	4th and subsequent elections

SequLeg4 = 4th and subsequent legislative elections (dummy)
(0)	1st, 2nd or 3rd election
(1)	4th and subsequent elections

SequPre4 = 4th and subsequent presidential elections (dummy)
(0)	1st, 2nd, 3rd election
(1)	4th and subsequent elections

FH_PR = Freedom House Political rights
(1)	Highest
(7)	Lowest

FH_CL = Freedom House Civil liberties
(1)	Highest
(7)	Lowest

FH_Mean = Freedom House Mean score
Average of annual Freedom House scores of political rights and civil liberties

FH_Press = Freedom House Press freedom
(1)	Highest
(3)	Lowest

BG_Regime = Geddes Regime type
(0)	Democracy (by implication)
(1)	Military
(2)	Military-personalist
(3)	Personalist
(4)	Single-party hybrid
(5)	Single-party
(6)	Residual amalgam

BG_Person = Geddes Personalist regime
(0)	Non-personalist regime
(1)	Personalist regime

BG_Party = Geddes Single-party regime
(0)	Authoritarian regime without single party
(1)	Single-party or single-party hybrid regime

BG_Military = Geddes Military regime
(0)	Non-military authoritarianism
(1)	Military or military-personalist regime

CNTS_Regime = CNTS Regime type (civilian vs. military) (s20f7)
(1)	Civilian
(2)	Military-civilian
(3)	Military
(4)	Other

CNTS_Military = CNTS Military regime (dummy)
(0)	Civilian and other
(1)	Military and military-civilian regime

GOV_Head = DPI Head of government (nominal variable)

GOV_Party = DPI Governing party 

ALT_Head = Alternation in power (head of government)
(0)	Continuity of chief executive
(1)	Alternation in government

ALT_Party = Alternation in power (governing party)
(0)	Continuity of ruling party
(1)	Alternation in power

Tenure_Head = DPI Years in office of head of government

Tenure_Party = DPI Years in power of ruling party

Ten_Head_log = Years in office of chief executive (log)

Ten_Party_log = Years in power of ruling party (log)

LC - ELECTORAL COMPETITION

Margin_L = Legislative margin of victory
s1 – s2
where s1 is the seat share of the largest party, and s2 the seat share of the second party.

Margin_P = Presidential margin of victory
v1 – v2
where v1 is the vote share of the winning presidential candidate, and v2 the vote share of the second-placed candidate.

Margin_LN = Legislative margin of victory (alternation = negative MV)
Legislative margins of victory as above, except for cases of alternation in power, when they turn negative. When an opposition party wins the election, its margin of victory are the ruling party’s “margin of defeat”. Since victory margins are meant to measure the strength of the ruling party, they receive a negative sign in cases of incumbent defeat. 

Margin_PN = Presidential margin of victory (alternation = negative MV)
Presidential margins of victory as above, except for cases of alternation in power, when they turn negative. When an opposition candidate wins the election, his or her margin of victory are the ruling candidate’s “margin of defeat”. Since victory margins are meant to measure incumbent strength, they receive a negative sign in cases of incumbent defeat. 

Margin_AN = Margin of victory (all elections, P if concurrent) (alternation = negative MV)
Margins of victory for legislative and presidential elections (and for presidential elections only in case of concurrent elections). Again, margins of defeat carry a negative sign. 

MV_AN_pred = Predicted margin of victory
Unstandardized B coefficients from ols regression of margins of victory (all elections) on per capita wealth (log of gdp per capita in current Purchasing Power Parities ppp), growth (average annual gdp per capita growth in the five years before the election), and legislative weakness.

MAJDIST = Majority distance
s1 – 50
where s1 is the seat share of the largest party in parliament.

MD_ABS = Majority distance (absolute value)

MAJ.A = Absolute majority
(0)	No absolute majority
(1)	Absolute majority

MAJ.A.CD = Absolute majority (discrete changes)
(0)	Loss of majority
(1)	Continuing minority
(2)	Conservation of majority
(3)	Achievement of majority

MAJ.C = Constitutional majority
(0)	No supermajority
(1)	Legislative supermajority

MAJ.C.CD = Constitutional majority (discrete changes)
(0)	Loss of constitutional majority
(1)	No constitutional majority
(2)	Conservation of constitutional majority
(3)	Achievement of const. majority

RAELEG = Legislative fractionalization
1 - ∑ si2
where si is the seat share of the ith party (Rae index).

Source: Rae, Douglas (1967), The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws (New Haven: Yale University Press).

Rae_PRE = Presidential fractionalization
1 - ∑ vi2
where vi is the vote share of the ith presidential candidate (Rae index)

RAEOPPL = Legislative opposition fractionalization
1 - ∑ so2
where so is the seat share of the oth opposition party of the total number of opposition seats (Rae index).

RAEOPPP = Presidential opposition fractionalization
1 - ∑ vo2
where vo is the share of the oth opposition candidate of the total opposition vote (Rae index).

RAEOPPall = Opposition fractionalization (all elections, P if concurrent)
Opposition fractionalization in legislative and presidential elections. In concurrent elections, presidential fractionalization counts.

ENEP = Effective number of electoral parties
1/∑vi2
where vi is the vote share of the ith party (Laakso-Taagepera Index).

Source: Laakso, Markku, and Rein Taagepera (1979), “Effective Number of Parties: A Measure with Application to Western Europe,” Comparative Political Studies 12: 3–27.

ENLP = Effective number of legislative parties
1/∑si2
where si is the seat share of the ith party (Laakso-Taagepera Index).

ENC = Effective number of candidates
1/∑vi2
where vi is the vote share of the ith presidential candidate (Laakso-Taagepera Index).

ENOP = Effective number of legislative opposition parties
1/∑osi2
where osi is the share of the ith opposition party of the total number of opposition seats (Laakso-Taagepera Index).

ENOC = Effective number of opposition candidates
1/∑ovi2
where ovi is the share of the ith opposition candidate of the total number of opposition votes (Laakso-Taagepera Index).

NEP_M = Number of electoral parties Molinar
1 + ENEP * (∑vi2 - v12) / ∑vi2
where v1 is the vote share of the largest party.

Source: Molinar, Horcasitas Juan (1991b), “Counting the Number of Parties: An Alternative Index,” American Political Science Review 85/4 (December): 1383–91.

NLP_M = Number of legislative parties Molinar
1 + ENLP * (∑si2 - s12) / ∑si2
where s1 is the seat share of the largest party.

NC_M = Number of candidates Molinar
1 + ENC * (∑vi2 - v12) / ∑vi2
where v1 is the vote share of the victorious presidential candidate.

LSQ = LSQ Least-Squares Index of Disproportionality
The square root of the sum of all squared differences between the seat and vote percentages of all parties.
√∑ (Vi – Si)2

Source: Gallagher, Michael, “Proportionality, Disproportionality, and Electoral Systems,” Electoral Studies (1991) 10: 333–51.

DISPROP = Disproportionality
The Loosemore-Hanby Disproportionality Index
∑|Vi – Si| / 2

Source: John Loosemore and Victor Hanby, “The Theoretical Limits of Maximum Distortion: Some Analytic Expressions for Electoral Systems,” British Journal of Political Science 1 (1971): 467-477

Margin_L_L = LAG Legislative margin of victory (previous election)
Legislative margin of victory in previous election.

Margin_P_L = LAG Presidential margin of victory (previous election)
Presidential margin of victory in previous election. 

Margin_L_LN = LAG Legislative margin of victory (alternation = negative sign)
Legislative margin of victory in previous election (in case of alternation in power: negatives signs for incumbent “margins of defeat”)

Margin_P_LN = LAG Presidential margin of victory (alternation = negative sign)
Presidential margin of victory in previous election (in case of alternation in power: negatives signs for incumbent “margins of defeat”)

Margin_ALL_L = LAG Margin of victory all elections (P if concurrent) (alternation = negative sign)
Margin of victory in previous election (in case of alternation in power: negatives signs for incumbent “margins of defeat”). All elections (presidential elections in case of concurrency).

MAJDIST_L = LAG Majority distance (previous election)
Majority distance in previous election.

RAELEG_L = LAG Legislative fragmentation (previous election)
Legislative fragmentation in previous election.

Rae_PRE_L = LAG Presidential fragmentation (previous election)
Presidential fragmentation in previous election.

RAEOPPL_L = LAG Legislative opposition fragmentation (previous election)
Legislative opposition fragmentation in previous election.

RAEOPPP_L = LAG Presidential opposition fragmentation (previous election)
Presidential opposition fragmentation in previous election.

RAEopp_L = LAG Opposition fragmentation (previous election)
Opposition fragmentation (all elections) in previous election.

ENEP_L = LAG Effective number of electoral parties (previous election)
ENEP in previous election.

ENLP_L = LAG Effective number of legislative parties (previous election)
ENLP in previous election.

ENC_L = LAG Effective number of candidates (previous election)
ENC in previous election.

ENOP_L = LAG Effective number of legislative opposition parties (previous election)
ENOP in previous election.

ENOC_L = LAG Effective number of opposition candidates (previous election)
ENOC in previous election.

Margin_L_DN = DIFF Legislative margin of victory (alt = neg) (change from previous election)

Margin_P_DN = DIFF Presidential margin of victory (alt = neg) (change from previous election)

Margin_LD1.3 = Legislative uncertainty CR (MV above / below 1/3) (competitive median)
(0)	Margin of victory > 33.33%
(1)	Margin of victory < 33.33%

Margin_LD3.4 = Legislative uncertainty HR (MV above / below 3/4) (hegemonic median)
(0)	Margin of victory > 75%
(1)	Margin of victory < 75%

Margin_PD1.3 = Presidential uncertainty CR (MV above / below 1/3) (competitive median)
(0)	Margin of victory > 33.33%
(1)	Margin of victory < 33.33%

Margin_PD2.3 = Presidential uncertainty HR (MV above / below 2/3) (hegemonic median)
(0)	Margin of victory > 66.66%
(1)	Margin of victory < 66.66%

Margin_L_D10 = Legislative electoral defeat (+/- 10%)
(0)	Gain (MV change > 10%)
(1)	Stability (+/- 10%)
(2)	Loss (MV change > -10%)

Margin_L_D3 = Legislative electoral defeat (+/- 15%)
(0)	Gain (MV change >15%)
(1)	Stability (MV change +/- 15%)
(2)	Loss (MV change > -15%)

Margin_P_D10 = Presidential electoral defeat (+/- 10%)
(0)	Gain (MV change > 10%)
(1)	Stability (MV change +/- 10%)
(2)	Loss (MV change > -10%)

Margin_P_D3 = Presidential electoral defeat (+/- 15%)
(0)	Gain (MV change > 15%)
(1)	Stability (MV change +/- 15%)
(2)	Loss (MV change > -15%)

TURNLREG = Legislative turnout (% registered population)
Voter participation in legislative elections (votes cast as percentage of registered population).

TURNLVAP = Legislative turnout (% voting age population)
Voter participation in legislative elections (votes cast as percentage of voting age population).

TURNPREG = Presidential turnout (% registered population)
Voter participation in presidential elections (votes cast as percentage of registered population).

TURNPVAP = Presidential turnout (% voting age population)
Voter participation in presidential elections (votes cast as percentage of registered population).

ELECTORAL PROTEST

BOYLEG = Legislative boycott
(0)	Participation
(1)	Boycott threats
(2)	Partial boycott
(3)	Full boycott

BOYLEG_T = Legislative boycott (trichotomous)
(0)	Participation
(1)	Partial boycott
(2)	Full boycott

BOYLEG_B = Legislative boycott (dummy)
(0)	Participation
(1)	Partial or full boycott

BOYPRE = Presidential boycott
(0)	Participation
(1)	Boycott threats
(2)	Partial boycott
(3)	Full boycott

BOYPRE_T = Presidential boycott (trichotomous)
(0)	Participation
(1)	Partial boycott
(2)	Full boycott

BOYPRE_B = Presidential boycott (dummy)
(0)	Participation
(1)	Partial or full boycott

BOYall = All boycott (L&P, highest in C elections)
(0)	Participation
(1)	Partial boycott
(2)	Full boycott

BOYall_B = All boyott (binary)
(0)	Participation
(1)	Partial or full boycott

LEGPRE = Legislative pre-electoral protest
(0)	Acquiescence
(1)	Active protest

PREPRE = Presidential pre-electoral protest
(0)	Acquiescence
(1)	Active protest

ALLpre = All pre-electoral protest (L&P, highest in C elections)
(0)	Acquiescence
(1)	Active protest

LEGPOST = Legislative post-electoral protest
(.0)	Acquiescence
(.5)	Rejection
(1.0)	Active protest

LEGPOST_2 = Legislative post-electoral protest (dummy)
(0)	Acquiescence or rejection
(1)	Active protest

PREPOST = Presidential post-electoral protest
(.0)	Acquiescence
(.5)	Rejection
(1.0)	Active protest

PREPOST_2 = Presidential post-electoral protest (dummy)
(0)	Acquiescence or rejection
(1)	Active protest

ALLPost = All post-electoral protest (L&P, highest in C elections)
(.0)	Acquiescence
(.5)	Rejection
(1.0)	Active protest

ALLPostD = All post-electoral protest (dummy)
(0)	Acquiescence & rejection
(1)	Active mobilization

PROleg = Legislative electoral protest (sum of pre- and post-electoral protest)

PROpre = Presidential electoral protest (sum of pre- and post-electoral protest)

PROall = All electoral protest (L&P, highest in C elections)
Electoral protest (sum of pre- and post-electoral protest) in all elections (presidential contests in case of concurrent elections)

BOYLEG_L = LAG Legislative boycott (previous election)
(0)	Participation
(1)	Boycott threats
(2)	Partial boycott
(3)	Full boycott

BOYPRE_L = LAG Presidential boycott (previous election)
(0)	Participation
(1)	Boycott threats
(2)	Partial boycott
(3)	Full boycott

LEGPRE_L = LAG Legislative pre-electoral protest (previous election)
(0)	Acquiescence
(1)	Active protest

PREPRE_L = LAG Presidential pre-electoral protest (previous election)
(0)	Acquiescence
(1)	Active protest

LEGPOST_L = LAG Legislative post-electoral protest (previous election)
(.0)	Acquiescence
(.5)	Rejection
(1.0)	Active protest

PREPOST_L = LAG Presidential post-electoral protest (previous election)
(.0)	Acquiescence
(.5)	Rejection
(1.0)	Active protest

ELECTORAL MANIPULATION

EXCLEG = Legislative exclusion
(0)	Inclusion
(1)	Exclusion

EXCPRE = Presidential exclusion
(0)	Inclusion
(1)	Exclusion

EXCall = All exclusion (L&P, highest scores if concurrent)
(0)	Inclusion
(1)	Exclusion

FRAUDLEG = Legislative fraud
(0)	No fraud
(1)	Irregularities
(2)	Fraud

FRAUDPRE = Presidential fraud
(0)	No fraud
(1)	Irregularities
(2)	Fraud

FRAUDall = All fraud (L&P, highest scores if concurrent)
(0)	No fraud
(1)	Irregularities
(2)	Fraud

FRAUDLB = Legislative fraud (dummy)
(0)	Clean or irregular election
(1)	Fraudulent election

FRAUDPB = Presidential fraud (dummy)
(0)	Clean or irregular election
(1)	Fraudulent election

S1FRAUDL = Legislative fraud (scale 0-1)
(.00)	Clean election
(.50)	Irregular election
(1.00)	Fraudulent election

S1FRAUDP = Presidential fraud (scale 0-1)
(.00)	Clean election
(.50)	Irregular election
(1.00)	Fraudulent election

S1_FRAUDall = All fraud (scale 0-1)
(.00)	Clean election
(.50)	Irregular election
(1.00)	Fraudulent election

VIOLINY0 = Violations of physical integrity (pre-election year)
(0)	Lowest
(8)	Highest

VIOLIN = Violations of physical integrity
(0)	Lowest
(8)	Highest

S1VIOLIN = Violations of physical integrity (scale 0-1)
(0)	zero violations
(1)	maximum violations

VIOLINY2 = Violations of physical integrity (post-election year)
(0)	Lowest
(8)	Highest

VIOLMEY0 = Violations of media freedom (pre-election year)
(0)	Lowest
(2)	Highest)

VIOLMED = Violations of media freedom
(0)	Lowest
(2)	Highest)

S1VIOLME = Violations of media freedom (scale 0-1)
(0)	Lowest
(2)	Highest)

VIOLMEY1 = Violations of media freedom (post-election year)
(0)	Lowest
(2)	Highest)

CIM = Cumulative index of manipulation
(0)	Lowest
(4)	Highest)

Sum of four dummy variables: violations of physical integrity (repression), violations of media freedom (censorship), exclusion, and electoral fraud. 

S1_CIM = Cumulative index of manipulation (scale 0-1)

CIT = Cumulative index of tolerance (absolute value of CIM-4)

CIMLEG_L = LAG legislative cumulative manipulation (previous year)
CIM in previous legislative election.

CIMPRE_L = LAG presidential cumulative manipulation (previous year)
CIM in previous presidential election.

EXCLEG_L = LAG Legislative exclusion (previous election)
(0)	Inclusion
(1)	Exclusion

EXCPRE_L = LAG Presidential exclusion (previous election)
(0)	Inclusion
(1)	Exclusion

EXCALL_L = LAG All exclusion (L&P highest scores if concurrent)
(0)	Inclusion
(1)	Exclusion

FRAUDLEG_L = LAG Legislative fraud (previous election)
(0)	Clean election
(1)	Irregular election
(2)	Fraudulent election

FRAUDPRE_L = LAG Presidential fraud (previous election)
(0)	Clean election
(1)	Irregular election
(2)	Fraudulent election

FRAUDall_L = LAG All fraud (L&P highest scores if concurrent)
(0)	Clean election
(1)	Irregular election
(2)	Fraudulent election

VIOLIN_L = LAG Violations of physical integrity (previous election)

VIOLMED_L = LAG Violations of media freedom (previous election)
(0)	Lowest
(2)	Highest

EXCLEG_D = DIFF Legislative exclusion (change from previous election)
(-1)	Relaxation
(0)	No change
(1)	Tightening

EXCPRE_D = DIFF Presidential exclusion (change from previous election)
(-1)	Relaxation
(0)	No Change
(1)	Tightening

EXCall_D = DIFF All exclusion (change from previous election)
(-1)	Relaxation
(0)	No Change
(1)	Tightening

FRAUDLEG_D = DIFF Legislative fraud (change from previous election)
Past legislative fraud (previous election) minus present legislative fraud (current election).

FRAUDPRE_D = DIFF Presidential fraud (change from previous election)
Past presidential fraud (previous election) minus present presidential fraud (current election).

Fraudleg_DT = DIFF Legislative fraud (trichotomous)
(-1)	Relaxation
(0)	Continuity
(1)	Tightening

Fraudpre_DT = DIFF Presidential fraud (trichotomous)
(-1)	Relaxation
(0)	No change
(1)	Tightening

FraudALL_DT = DIFF All fraud (trichotomous)
(-1)	Relaxation
(0)	No change
(1)	Tightening

VIOLIN_D = DIFF Violations of physical integrity (change from previous election)
Past violations of physical integrity (previous election) minus present violations of physical integrity (current election).

Violin_DT = DIFF Violations of physical integrity (trichotomous)
(-1)	Relaxation
(0)	No change
(1)	Tightening

VIOLMED_D = DIFF Violations of media freedom (change from previous election)
Past violations of media freedom (previous election) minus present violations of media freedom (current election).

Violmed_DT = DIFF Violations of media freedom (trichotomous)
(-1)	Relaxation
(0)	No change
(1)	Tightening

Cumulus_D = DIFF Cumulative index of manipulation (change from previous election)
Past CIM (previous election) minus present CIM (current election).

CIRISPEE = CIRI Cingranelli-Richards Freedom of speech
(0)	Complete government censorship and/or ownership of the media
(1)	Some government censorship and/or ownership of the media
(2)	No government censorship and/or ownership of the media

CIRIASSE = CIRI Cingranelli-Richards Freedom of assembly
(0)	Severely restricted jor denied completely to all citizens
(1)	Limited for all citizens or severely restricted or denied for select groups
(2)	Virtually unrestricted and freely enjoyed by practically all citizens

CIRIPART = CIRI Cingranelli-Richards Political participation
(0)	Very limited
(1)	Moderately free and open
(2)	Very free and open

PARREG = Polity IV PARREG Regulation of participation
(-88)	Transition period
(1)	Unregulated
(2)	Multiple identity
(3)	Sectarian
(4)	Restricted
(5)	Regulated

PARCOMP = Polity IV PARCOMP Competitiveness of participation
(-88)	Transition period
(1)	Repressed
(2)	Suppressed
(3)	Factional
(4)	Transitional
(5)	Competitive

PARREGE = Polity IV PARREG registers Exclusion
(-88)	Transition period
(0)	No
(1)	Yes

PARCOMPE = Polity IV PARCOMP registers Exclusion
(-88)	Transition period
(0)	No
(1)	Yes

REVWAR = State Failure Dataset Revolutionary warfare (average annual magnitude)
(0)	Lowest
(4)	Highest)

ETHWAR = State Failure Dataset Ethnic warfare (average annual magnitude)
(0)	Lowest
(4)	Highest

CIVILWAR = State Failure Dataset Societal warfare (average of revolutionary and ethnic war)
(0)	Lowest
(4)	Highest

World Bank Database of Political Institutions (DPI)

DPI_FRAUD = DPI World Bank Database of Political Institutions Fraud and candidate intimidation
(0)	No
(1)	Yes

DPI_PLUR = DPI World Bank Database of Political Institutions Plurality elections
(0)	No plurality rules
(1)	Plurality rules

DPI_PR = DPI World Bank Database of Political Institutions Proportional representation
(0)	No PR
(1)	PR

DPI_MUNI = DPI World Bank Database of Political Institutions Municipal elections
(0)	No locally elected municipal government
(1)	Locally elected municipal government
(2)	Two locally elected municipal governments

DPI_STATE = DPI World Bank Database of Political Institutions State elections
(0)	No locally elected state/province governments
(1)	Locally elected state/province governments
(2)	Two locally elected state/province governments

DPI_Subnational = DPI World Bank Database of Political Institutions Subnational elections (either state or local) (calculated by author)
(0)	Neither municipal nor state elections
(1)	Either municipal or state elections (or both)

Arthur Banks CNTS Cross-National Time-Series Data

s18f1_P5M = CNTS Anti-government demonstrations P5 (mean). 
Annual average of anti-government demonstrations in previous five years.

Anti-government demonstration = “Any peaceful public gathering of at least 100 people for the primary purpose of displaying or voicing their opposition to government policies or authority, excluding demonstrations of a distinctly anti-foreign nature.” (cnts Codebook)

s18f1_P5 = CNTS Anti-government demonstrations P5 (#)
Number of anti-government demonstrations in previous five years.

s18f1_P3 = CNTS Anti-government demonstrations P3
Number of anti-government demonstrations in previous three years.

s18f1_P3D = CNTS Anti-government demonstrations P3 (dummy)
(0)	No demonstrations in previous three years
(1)	One or more demonstrations

s18f1_P1 = CNTS Anti-government demonstrations P1
Number of anti-government demonstrations in previous year.

s18f1dem = CNTS Anti-government demonstrations
Number of anti-government demonstrations in election year.

s18f1_F1 = CNTS Anti-government demonstrations F1
Number of anti-government demonstrations in subsequent year.

s18f1_F3 = CNTS Anti-government demonstrations F3
Number of anti-government demonstrations in the three years following the election year.

s18f1_F3D = CNTS Anti-government demonstrations F3 (dummy)
(0)	No demonstrations in subsequent three years
(1)	One or more demonstrations

s18f1_F5M = CNTS Anti-government demonstrations F5 (mean)
Annual average of anti-government demonstrations in the five years following the election year.

s18f1_F5 = CNTS Anti-government demonstrations F5 (#)
Number of anti-government demonstrations in the five years following the election year.

s17f2_P5M = CNTS General strikes P5 (mean)
Annual average of general strikes in previous five years.

General strikes = “Any strike of 1.000 or more industrial or service workers that involves more than one employer and that is aimed at national government policies or authority.” (cnts Codebook)

s17f2_P5 = CNTS General strikes P5 (#)
Number of general strikes in previous five years.

s17f2_P3 = CNTS General strikes P3
Number of general strikes in previous three years.

s17f2_P3D = CNTS General strikes P3 (dummy)
(0)	No general strikes in previous three years
(1)	One or more strikes

s17f2_P1 = CNTS General strikes P1
Number of general strikes in previous year.

s17f2str = CNTS General strikes
Number of general strikes in election year.

s17f2_F1 = CNTS General strikes F1
Number of general strikes in the year following the election year.

s17f2_F3 = CNTS General strikes F3
Number of general strikes in the three year following the election year.

s17f2_F3D = CNTS General strikes F3 (dummy)
(0)	No general strikes in subsequent three years
(1)	One or more strikes

s17f2_F5M = CNTS General strikes F5 (mean)
Annual average of general strikes in the five years following the election year.

s17f2_F5 = CNTS General strikes F5 (#)
Number of general strikes in the five years following the election year.

s17f6_P5M = CNTS Riots P5 (mean)
Annual average of riots in previous five years.

Riots = “Any violent demonstration or clash of more than 100 citizens involving the use of physical force.” (cnts Codebook)

s17f6_P5 = CNTS Riots P5 (#)
Number of riots in previous five years.

s17f6_P3 = CNTS Riots P3
Annual average of riots in previous three years.

s17f6_P3D = CNTS Riots P3 (dummy)
(0)	No riots in previous three years
(1)	One or more riots

s17f6_P1 = CNTS Riots P1
Annual average of riots in previous year.

s17f6rio = CNTS Riots
Annual average of riots in election year.

s17f6_F1 = CNTS Riots F1
Number of riots in the year following the election year.

s17f6_F3 = CNTS Riots F3
Number of riots in the three years following the election year.

s17f6_F3D = CNTS Riots F3 (dummy)
(0)	No riots in subsequent three years
(1)	One or more riots

s17f6_F5M = CNTS Riots F5 (mean)
Annual average of riots in the five years following the election year.

s17f6_F5 = CNTS Riots F5 (#)
Number of riots in the five years following the election year.

s17f1_P5M = CNTS Political assassinations P5 (mean)
Annual average of political assassinations in previous five years.

Political assassinations = “Any politically motivated murder or attempted murder of a high government official or politician.” (cnts Codebook)

s17f1_P5 = CNTS Political assassinations P5 (#)
Number of political assassinations in previous five years.

s17f1_P3 = CNTS Political assassinations P3
Number of political assassinations in previous three years.

s17f1_P3D = CNTS Political assassinations P3 (dummy)
(0)	No assassinations in previous three years
(1)	One or more assassinations

s17f1_P1 = CNTS Political assassinations P1
Number of political assassinations in previous year.

s17f1ass = CNTS Political assassinations
Number of political assassinations in election year.

s17f1_F1 = CNTS Political assassinations F1
Number of political assassinations in the year following the election year.

s17f1_F3 = CNTS Political assassinations F3
Number of political assassinations in the three years following the election year.

s17f1_F3D = CNTS Political assassinations F3 (dummy)
(0)	No assassinations in subsequent three years
(1)	One or more assassinations

s17f1_F5M = CNTS Political assassinations F5 (mean)
Annual average of political assassinations in the five years following the election year.

s17f1_F5 = CNTS Political assassinations F5 (#)
Number of political assassinations in the five years following the election year.

s17f3_P5M = CNTS Guerrilla warfare P5 (mean)
Annual average of guerrilla wars in previous five years.

Guerrilla warfare = “Any armed activity, sabotage, or bombings carried on by independent bands of citizens or irregular forces and aimed at the overthrow of the present regime.” (cnts Codebook)

s17f3_P5 = CNTS Guerrilla warfare P5 (#)
Number of guerrilla wars in previous five years.

s17f3_P3 = CNTS Guerrilla warfare P3
Number of guerrilla wars in previous three years.

s17f3_P3D = CNTS Guerrilla warfare P3 (dummy)
(0)	No guerrilla wars in previous three years
(1)	One or more guerrillas wars

s17f3_P1 = CNTS Guerrilla warfare P1
Number of guerrilla wars in previous year.

s17f3war = CNTS Guerilla warfare
Number of guerrilla wars.

s17f3_F1 = CNTS Guerrilla warfare F1
Number of guerrilla wars in the year following the election year.

s17f3_F3 = CNTS Guerrilla warfare F3
Number of guerrilla wars in the three years following the election year.

s17f3_F3D = CNTS Guerrilla warfare F3 (dummy)
(0)	No guerrilla warfare in subsequent three years
(1)	One or more guerrillas

s17f3_F5M = CNTS Guerrilla warfare F5 (mean)
Annual average of guerrilla wars in the five years following the election year.

s17f3_F5 = CNTS Guerrilla warfare F5 (#)
Number of guerrilla wars in the five years following the election year.

s17f7_P5M = CNTS Revolutions P5 (mean)
Annual average of revolutions in previous five years.

Revolutions = “Any illegal or forced change in the top governmental elite, any attempt at such a change, or any successful or unsuccessful armed rebellion whose aim is independence from the central government.” (cnts Codebook)

s17f7_P5 = CNTS Revolutions P5 (#)
Number of revolutions in previous five years.

s17f7_P3 = CNTS Revolutions P3
Number of revolutions in previous three years.

s17f7_P3D = CNTS Revolutions P3 (dummy)
(0)	No revolution in previous three years
(1)	One or more revolutions

s17f7_P1 = CNTS Revolutions P1
Number of revolutions in previous year.

s17f7rev = CNTS Revolutions
Number of revolutions in election year.

s17f7_F1 = CNTS Revolutions F1
Number of revolutions in the year following the election year.

s17f7_F3 = CNTS Revolutions F3
Number of revolutions in the three years following the election year.

s17f7_F3D = CNTS Revolutions F3 (dummy)
(0)	No revolutions in subsequent three years
(1)	One or more revolutions

s17f7_F5M = CNTS Revolutions F5 (mean)
Annual average of revolutions in the five years following the election year.

s17f7_F5 = CNTS Revolutions F5 (#)
Number of revolutions in the five years following the election year.

s17f4_P5M = CNTS Government crises P5 (mean)
Annual average of government crises in previous five years.

Government crises = “Any rapidly developing situation that threatens to bring the downfall of the present regime – exluding situations of revolt aimed at such overthrow.” (cnts Codebook)

s17f4_P5 = CNTS Government crises P5 (#)
Number of government crises in previous five years.

s17f4_P3 = CNTS Government crises P3
Number of government crises in previous three years.

s17f4_P3D = CNTS Government crises P3 (dummy)
(0)	No government crisis in previous three years
(1)	One or more crises

s17f4_P1 = CNTS Government crises P1
Number of government crises in previous year.

s17f4cri = CNTS Government crises
Number of government crises in election year.

s17p4_F1 = CNTS Government crises F1
Number of government crises in the year following the election year.

s17p4_F3 = CNTS Government crises F3
Number of government crises in the three years following the election year.

s17f4_F3D = CNTS Government crises F3 (dummy)
(0)	No government crises in subsequent three years
(1)	One or more crises

s17f4_F5M = CNTS Government crises F5 (mean)
Annual average of government crises in the five years following the election year.

s17f4_F5 = CNTS Government crises F5 (#)
Number of government crises in the five years following the election year.

s17f5_P5M = CNTS Purges P5 (mean)
Annual average of purges in previous five years.

Purges = “Any systematic elimination by jailing or execution of political opposition within the ranks of the regime or the opposition.” (cnts Codebook)

s17f5_P5 = CNTS Purges P5 (#)
Number of purges in previous five years.

s17f5_P3 = CNTS Purges P3
Number of purges in previous three years.

s17f5_P3D = CNTS Purges P3 (dummy)
(0)	No purges in previous three years
(1)	One or more purges

s17f5_P1 = CNTS Purges P1
Number of purges in previous year.

s17f5pur = CNTS Purges
Number of purges in election year.

s17f5_F1 = CNTS Purges F1
Number of purges in the year following the election year.

s17f5_F3 = CNTS Purges F3
Number of purges in the three years following the election year.

s17f5_F3D = CNTS Purges F3 (dummy)
(0)	No purges in subsequent three years
(1)	One or more purges

s17f5_F5M = CNTS Purges F5 (mean)
Annual average of purges in the five years following the election year.

s17f5_F5 = CNTS Purges F5 (#)
Number of purges in the five years following the election year.

s21f1 = CNTS Successful Coups (#)
Number of successful military coups in election year.

Coups = “extraconstitutional or forced changes in the top government elite and / or its effective control of the nation’s power structure” (cnts Codebook).

CoupsP25 = CNTS Military coups previous 25 years (#)
Number of successful military coups in previous 25 years.

CoupsP25D = CNTS Military coups P25 (dummy)
(0)	No successful coup in previous 25 years
(1)	At least 1 successful coup

CoupsP10 = CNTS Military coups previous 10 years (#)
Number of successful military coups in previous 10 years.

CoupsP10D = CNTS Military coups P10 (dummy)
(0)	No successful coup in previous 10 years
(1)	One or more coups

CoupsP3 = CNTS Military coups previous 3 years (#)
Number of successful military coups in previous three years.

CoupsP3D = Military coups P3 (dummy)
(0)	No successful coup in previous three years
(1)	One or more coups

CoupsF3 = CNTS Military coups following 3 years (#)
Number of successful military coups in the three years following the election year.

CoupsF3D = CNTS Military coups F3 (dummy)
(0)	No coups in subsequent three years
(1)	One or more coups

Cnts_IVERTP3 = CNTS Index Vertical threats P3 # (demonstrations + strikes + riots)
Additive index of “vertical threats” = sum of demonstrations, strikes, and riots (in the three years previous to the election year).

Cnts_IVERTF3 = CNTS Index Vertical threats F3 # (demonstrations + strikes + riots)
Additive index of “vertical threats” = sum of demonstrations, strikes, and riots (in the three years following the election year).

Cnts_IVERTP3D = CNTS Index Vertical threats P3 (dummy)
(0)	No vertical threats in previous three years
(1)	1 or more vertical threats

Cnts_IVERTF3D = CNTS Index Vertical threats F3 (dummy)
(0)	No vertical threats in subsequent three years
(1)	1 or more vertical threats

Cnts_IARP3C = CNTS Index Armed rebellion P3 # (guerrilla + revolutions)
Additive index of “armed rebellion” = sum of guerrilla wars and revolutions (in the three years previous to the election year).

Cnts_IARF3 = CNTS Index Armed rebellion F3 # (guerrilla + revolutions)
Additive index of “armed rebellion” = sum of guerrilla wars and revolutions (in the three years following the election year).

Cnts_IHORP3 = CNTS Index Horizontal threats P3 # (government crises + purges + coups)
Additive index of “horizontal threats” = sum of government crises, purges, and military coups (in the three years previous to the election year).

Cnts_IHORF3 = CNTS Index Horizontal threats F3 # (gov. crises + purges + coups)
Additive index of “horizontal threats” = sum of government crises, purges, and military coups (in the three years following the election year).

s22f1 = CNTS Cabinet size

s19f2 = CNTS Assembly size
(0)	VALORES PERDIDOS DISCRETOS

s19f3 = CNTS Legislative effectiveness
(0)	No legislature
(1)	Ineffective (“rubber stamp”) legislature
(2)	Partially effective legislature
(3)	Effective legislature

s22f4 = CNTS Legislative ineffectiveness
(0)	Effective legislature
(1)	Partially effective legislature
(2)	Ineffective (“rubber stamp”) legislature
(3)	No legislature

s22f4bin = CNTS Legislative ineffectiveness binary
(0)	Effective or partially effective legislature
(1)	No or ineffective legislature

s19f6 = CNTS Party exclusion (“Party legitimacy”)
(0)	No parties exist, or all but dominant party and satellites excluded
(1)	Significant exclusion of parties (or groups)
(2)	One or more minor parties or “extremist” parties excluded
(3)	No parties excluded

s21f3 = CNTS Type of head of state
(1)	Monarch
(2)	President
(3)	Military

s21f5 = CNTS Type of effective executive
(1)	Monarch
(2)	President
(3)	Premier
(4)	Military
(5)	Other

s21f6c = CNTS Selection of effective executive
(0)	Direct election
(2)	Indirect election
(3)	Nonelective

BureauQ = PRS Political Risk Services Bureaucratic Quality
(0)	Lowest
(6)	Highest

Frac_eth = Alesina Ethnic fractionalization
1 - ∑ ei2
where ei is the population share of the eth ethnic group (Rae index). 

Source: Alesina, Alberto, Arnaud Devleeschauwer, Sergio Kurlat, and Romain Wacziarg (2003), “Fractionalization,” Journal of Economic Growth 8: 155–194.

Frac_lin = Alesina Linguistic fractionalization
1 - ∑ li2
where li is the population share of the lth language group (Rae index). 

Source: Alesina et al. (2003).

Frac_rel = Alesina Religious fractionalization
1 - ∑ ri2
where ri is the population share of the rth religious group (Rae index). 

Source: Alesina et al. (2003).

Frac_linPOL = Linguistic Polarization
| [|(Fl - .05) * 2| - 1] |
In Rae fractionalization indices, values of 0.5 denote situations of bipolarity between two groups (“polarization”) which differ from one-group dominance (Rae = close to 0) and multi-group dispersion (Rae = close to 1). If we subtract 0.5 from the Rae index of linguistic fractionalization Fl, and multiply the absolute value of the result by 2, we obtain an index of linguistic non-polarization, which I invert in order to obtain my index of polarization.

Frac_relPOL = Religious Polarization
| [|(Fr - .05) * 2| - 1] |
In Rae fractionalization indices, values of 0.5 denote situations of bipolarity between two groups (“polarization”) which differ from one-group dominance (Rae = close to 0) and multi-group dispersion (Rae = close to 1). If we subtract 0.5 from the Rae index of religious fractionalization Fr, and multiply the absolute value of the result by 2, we obtain an index of religious non-polarization, which I invert in order to obtain my index of polarization.

PR = Gerring Proportional Representation
(0)	Majoritarian or preferential vote
(1)	Mixed-member majority or bloque vote
(2)	Proportional representation

MAJOR = Gerring Majoritarian electoral system
(0)	Proportional representation
(1)	Mixed-member majority or bloque vote
(2)	Majoritarian or preferential vote

Major_B = Gerring Majoritarian electoral system (dichotomous)
(0)	Proportional representation
(1)	Majoritarian or mixed-member system

President = Gerring Presidentialism
(0)	Parliamentary system
(1)	Semipresidential system
(2)	Presidential system

Parlament = Gerring Parliamentarism
(0)	Presidential
(1)	Semi-presidential
(2)	Parliamentary

Parlia_D = Gerring Parliamentarism (dichotomous)
(0)	Presidential or semipresidential system
(1)	Parliamentary system

POP = Population UN Demographic Yearbook
Mid-year estimations of country population size (1000). Missing data replaced by closest previous data. 

Source: United Nations Statistics Division, Demographic Yearbook (http://unstats.un.org/unsd).

POP_MILL = Population (millions)
Population size in millions.

POP_LOG = Population Log
Log of population size (base 10). 

IBRD World Development Indicators

CODE.WDI = World Bank Country Codes

SURFACE = Surface area (sq km)

AGE14 = Population ages 0-14 (% population)

POP.DNST = Population density (people per sq km)

POP.DNST_Log = Population density (log)

POP_URB = Urban population (% total population)
Urban population as percentage of total population.

POP_RUR = Rural population (% total population)
Rural population as percentage of total population.

GDP.PC95 = GDP per capita (constant 1995 USD)
Gross domestic product per capita (in constant 1995 US Dollars).

GDP.PCPP = GDP per capita (current PPP)
Gross domestic product per capita (in current Purchasing Power Parities).

GDPPCLOG = GDP per capita (log of current PPP)
Log (base 10) of gross domestic product per capita (current Purchasing Power Parities).

GDP.PCPT = GDP per capita (thousands PPP)
Gross domestic product per capita (in 1000 current Purchasing Power Parities).

GDPRANK = GDP per capita (current PPP) rank
(1)	< 1,000
(2)	1000-1999
(3)	2000-2999
(4)	3000-3999
(5)	4000-4999
(6)	5000-5999
(7)	6000-6999
(8)	> 7000

GDP.PCCD = GDP per capita, annual growth (%)

GDP_1 = GDP per capita, annual change (pre-election year)

GDP_5 = GDP per capita, annual change (average 5 years before election)

GDP_10 = GDP per capita, annual change (average 10 years before election)

INFL.CD = Inflation, CPI consumer price index (annual %)

CPI_1 = Inflation, CPI annual % change (pre-election year)

CPI_5 = Inflation, CPI annual % change (average 5 years before election)

CPI_10 = Inflation, CPI annual % change (average 10 years before election)

TAX.TOTL = Tax revenue (% GDP)

NONTAX = Nontax revenue (% current revenue)

TAX.GSRV = Taxes on goods and services (% current revenue)

TAX.INCO = Taxes on income, profit and capital gains (% current revenue)

TAX.TRAD = Taxes on international trade (% current revenue)

BUDG.BAL = Overall budget balance, including grants (% GDP)

DEBT.GDP = Central government debt (% GDP)

XPD.TOTL = Total expenditure (% GDP)

XPD.EDU = Public spending on education, total (% GDP)

XPDHEALTH = Public health expenditure (% GDP)

XPD.SUBS = Subsidies and other transfers (% total expenditure)

WAGES = Wages and salaries (% total expenditure)

XPMILGOV = Military expenditure (% central government expenditure)

XPMILGDP = Military expenditure (% GDP)

MIL.TLF = Military personnel (% total labor force)

MIL.TOTL = Military personnel, total

ARMS.IMP = Arms imports (constant 1990 USD)

LITERACY = Adult literacy rate (% people ages 15 and above)
Adult literacy rate (% people ages 15 and above).

Illitera = Adult illiteracy rate
Adult illiteracy rate (% people ages 15 and above). 

Source: Author calculations on the basis of wdi.

IMRT.P3 = Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)

LIFEE00 = Life expectancy at birth (years)

UEMTOTL = Total unemployment (% total labor force)

UEMYOUTH = Youth unemployment (% total labor force ages 15-24)

Gini_WDI = GINI WDI (current)
Income distribution inequality (Gini coefficient). 

Source: IBRD World Development Indicators.

GINI = GINI WDI (closest available year)
Income distribution inequality (Gini coefficient). Missing data imputed through available data in closest available year. 

Source: WDI. 

GINIYEAR = GINI WDI year of reference
Years for which Gini coefficients included in previous variable (gini wdi) were originally reported by the World Bank.

Gini_UTIP = GINI UTIP Texas
Income distribution inequality (Gini coefficient). 

Source: University of Texas Inequality Project (utip)

Gini_WID = GINI World Inequality Database
Income distribution inequality (Gini coefficient). 

Source: World Inequality Database.

USD1.PPP = Living on less than 1 PPP a day (% people)

USD2.PPP = Living on less than 2 PPP a day (% people)

POVERTY = Poverty headcount, national (% population)

POVRURAL = Poverty headcount, rural (% population)

POVURBAN = Poverty headcount, urban (% population)

NEWS.P3 = Daily newspapers (per 1,000 people)

PHONE.ML = Telephone mainlines (per 1,000 people)

PHONE.MO = Mobile phones (per 1,000 people)

PHONE.AL = Phone subscribers, all (per 1,000 people)
Number of mainline and mobile phone subscribers (per 1,000 people).

RADIOS = Radios (per 1,000 people)

TV = Television sets (per 1,000 people)

CABLE.TV = Cable TV subscribers (per 1,000 people)

CARS.PAS = Passenger cars (per 1,000 people)

ODA.USD = Official development assistance (current USD)

ODA.GNI = Official development assistance (% GNI)

ODA.CGE = Official development assistance (% central government expenditures)

TRADEGDP = Trade (% GDP)

EXTBALAN = External balance of goods and services (% GDP)

EXP.GS = Exports of goods and services (% GDP)

IMP.GDP = Imports of goods and services (% GDP)

FUELEXP = Exports of mineral fuels (% merchandise exports)

Fuelexp25 = Mineral fuel export dependency (> 25% total exports)
(0)	Mineral fuel exports < 25% total exports
(1)	Mineral fuel exports > 25% total exports

FOODIMP = Food imports (% merchandise imports)

TOURISM = International tourism expenditures (% total exports)

REMIT = Workers' remittances (BoP, current USD)

FDI.GDP = Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% GDP)

FDI.NET = Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% gross capital formation)

EXTDT = Total external debt (DOD, current USD)

TDS.EXP = Total debt service (% exports of goods and services)

TDS.GNI = Total debt service (% GNI)

TDS.MLAT = Multilateral debt service (% public and publicly guaranteed debt service)

INR.REAL = Real interest rate (%)

DEBT.ST = Short-term debt (% total debt)

INR.RISK = Risk premium on lending (%)

ICRGRISK = ICRG composite risk rating
(0)	Highest
(100)	Lowest

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